The Theories of 2015 Governorship

A theory is a body of rules, ideas, principles, and techniques that applies to a subject, especially when seen as distinct from actual practice.  Taken as speculation, a theory is a bundle of abstract thought or contemplation.  An idea of, or belief about something arrived at through speculation or conjecture is also what a theory means.  In explaining phenomena, scientists play with scientific principles, using what they termed as facts, propositions and principles analyzed in their relation to one another. The 2015 elections have come and gone, yet there are many issues that arise worth contemplating on.  One of such issues in Akwa Ibom State depend on a plethora of theories which were woven around the emergence of who the governor of the state will be considering the twenty five of them who were in the race in PDP, but some later defected to APC, Accord and Labour Parties. Taken separately, abstract thoughts and contemplation by political players were raised to the level of public debates such that the first was the theory of Udom Emmanuel becoming the governor of Akwa Ibom State.  In most places and political circles, this theory held that the power of incumbency would be harnessed to favour Udom Emmanuel. Zoning and Ibibioism were in his favour too.  Akpabio’s towering influence as the Chairman of PDP Governors Forum, his generous mien in the country, his popularity in terms of uncommon achievements, the financial strength he commands, his BoT membership of the PDP,  closeness to the President and his connections in Aso Rock Villa were indices which thinkers surmise will give Udom Emmanuel an edge above all his contenders.  This school of thought said he could be favoured because he has no known political enemies and has not offended anybody politically in the State before, hence would have less political load to carry if he emerges and would have more time to develop the state economically. The others who argued against this theory said if he emerges it would be a matter of the hand of Esau and the voice of Jacob. The theory of Obong Bassey Albert (OBA) held that he was the most popular across the state and did consultations that was akin to electioneering campaigns, was well accepted among the youths and fraternal families, has the financial resources, was recommended to the president in that light by a presidential team of observers sent to verify which guber aspirant [then] was on ground and could deliver PDP in the state.  The next theory posited that Bishop Samuel Akpan was a ‘hidden card’ that Governor Akpabio would swing at the eleventh hour since the said Bishop Akpan have been heavily vilified and cheated politically.  Those for this theory argued that Akpan was from Eket Senatorial District and an Ibibio man, thereby putting paid to the zoning debate if he is chosen.  It was argued that as a member of the Brotherhood of the Cross and Star, he has the ears of the sitting President also rumoured to have been favoured by the spiritual blessings of the Leader of the fold sometimes in the past, hence would weld the big stick in his favour.  Professor King was equally cast in this mould, otherwise, it was thought provoking what gave the academic such guts to bolster his campaign image and pull such strings in so short a time he came to limelight in the Aso Rock State House as an aide to the President to seek to become governor of Akwa Ibom state.  It was theorized that his closeness to the President will give him ticket. Another theory tipped Umana Okon Umana as the only man who has the means and guts to wrestle power out of Governor Akpabio’s hands having known what the Governor knows in terms of all the nuances of winning elections.  The tornado of the positive change of the John James Akpan Udoedeghe’s fame was added as a pep to catapult Umana to the height of winning any contender Akpabio will flaunt.  The Ibibioism and the allegations that Governor Akpabio impoverished the Ibibios, killed others, humbled the rest and chased many out of government to make them an insignificant majority in years to come were issues advanced in favour of Umana’s candidacy and when Buhari won the Presidential Election, it was believed that Umana was the next governor of the state because of the expected band wagon effect. The theory of Her Excellency Senator Mrs Helen Esuene becoming governor was held high when the 40 days and nights sojourn in the political wilderness in search of  justice in Abuja failed.  It was said that Senator Helen was Obasanjo’s candidate, even though she rebutted such claims, replacing same with the argument that she was a candidate of the G22. About the time of the Primaries, it was rumoured everywhere that Dame Patience Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was the sponsor of Rt. Hon. Okpolopm Etteh and that it was Etteh’s nomination list that would be used for the governorship primaries.  Many persons told a section of the press in Akwa Ibom State that if that list was not ignored by the committee that conducted the primaries that Etteh would have been the standard bearer of the PDP during the 2015 governorship election. The theory of one Mr Chirs Asuquo who never even bought the PDP nomination form was flaunted by some political touts that he was anointed by God and that even though he did not stand election he would be sworn in at last.    He was said to have been backed by very influential northerners.   A man who decided to be hiding for reasons not known to anyone also said he was going to be the next governor.  The theory of this APGA  governorship candidate was the strangest.  His posters were not seen, he never campaigned, did no consultation, but his followers said he helped Akpabio to be governor and there was an understanding that he would take over from him[Governor Akpabio] after eight years. Those who rooted for a theory in favour of His Excellency Mr Nsima Ekere said that if PDP primaries were kept on ground he would have won because he was the most serious of all aspirants who sought to serve the state in that capacity because of his clearly defined message of what he was going to do for the people and not drumming the music of his glories and personage.  His campaign messages were apt and direct without ambiguity. The theory of Barr Effiong Abia becoming the next governor of Akwa Ibom was that he had served under governor Akpabio since the days of Obong Victor Attah and may have been kept around the governor for obvious reasons to fulfill the tripod or zoning theory of  the state started during the time of governor Victor Attah.  Effiong Abia believed he was going to be the next governor but felt dumped when the sitting governor allegedly looked elsewhere. Speculations upon speculations were the order of the day and a chronicle of these conjectures may have no end.  Now that one of the speculations has come to pass it makes those permutations not completely false; after all, as it is always in permutations, one of them has come true.  In the words of the Akwa Ibom State Police Commissioner,  CP Gabriel Achong, “whoever emerges in this election is an Akwa Ibom indigene”.  Despite the endless theories of the 2015 governorship, an Akwa Ibom son has emerged as the governor-elect in the person of Mr Udom Gabriel Emmanuel.  Though there were reported cases of pockets of irregularities, carting of election materials by different parties involved in the election, alleged killings and maiming of persons, abduction of a Journalists of the Radar newspaper, claims and counter claims about the protests for cancellation of election, celebration of victory by the PDP and victory march, let it be said that we have only one state and a people; and unity is what we need to grow. Much as we empathize with the families of persons who lost their lives and condemn in totality the activities of persons who tried to abuse the constitutional process of smooth transition to the next government, we call on those who feel aggrieved to employ all known avenues known to law to seek justice just as we urge those who lose elections to gallantly live above board by taking the path of honour to congratulate the winners as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, GCFR, showed leadership by example when he congratulated the President-elect, General Muhammadu Buhari, even before the announcement of the latter as the winner of March 28, 2015 elections.